OPERATIONAL DEPTHINTERMEDIATE · LESSON 23 / 24~6 min read

Catalyst calendar + OPEX awareness.

Pilots don't take off without checking three things: weather, NOTAMs (notices to airmen — runway closures, restricted airspace), and alternate airports in case the destination goes IFR. Trading the week ahead has the same flight-planning logic. The catalyst calendar is the weather. OPEX is a NOTAM. Three-day weekends are runway closures. The framework's job is to surface every known event in the upcoming five sessions so the trader can size, trim, or sit out before the event lands — not after, when the price has already gapped past the window the framework's stops were sized for.

The five-session look-ahead

Every Friday close ritual reads the upcoming week's calendar. The four event types worth flagging:

Earnings (per-name) — every held position's earnings date. The catalyst chip surfaces this with day-count + BMO/AMC timing. Lesson 19 is the playbook for what to do when one's coming up.
Macro prints (FOMC, CPI/PCE, NFP, retail sales) — known release dates and times. FOMC days are highest-vol; CPI/PCE second-tier. NFP can move bond/equity correlation but rarely produces gap-down on individual names.
OPEX (monthly + quarterly) — third Friday of every month is monthly OPEX; the four "quad-witching" Fridays (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec) are the largest. OPEX week often has elevated pinning, gamma reversals, and dealer-flow distortion in heavily-optioned names.
Three-day weekends + half-days — Memorial, Labor, July 4th, Thanksgiving (half + closed Friday), Christmas (half), New Year's. Holiday gaps amplify position risk; the framework recommends trimming positions before three-day weekends with macro overhang.

Earnings calendar — already covered

Lesson 19's full earnings playbook applies. Friday-close rule: any held position with earnings within the next 5 sessions gets the playbook decision (full exit / quarter-size / options replacement). Don't let Monday open arrive with that decision unmade.

FOMC + macro prints

FOMC days are the most consistent vol-spike days on the calendar. Statement at 2pm ET, press conference at 2:30pm. Equity vol typically expands 30 minutes before through 1 hour after. The framework's operational rules around FOMC:

No new entries opening AT or near 2pm ET on FOMC day. The dashboard's pre-flight refuses entries within a 90-minute window around the release.
Existing positions: stops continue to apply, but Chandelier-Exit raises planned for the afternoon get deferred to next session if the move exceeds 1× ATR in either direction at the print.
Sizing on the day before FOMC is reduced by ~25% on new entries — same logic as Lesson 19's earnings playbook, applied to a market-wide event.

CPI/PCE are similar but lower-magnitude. Same 90-minute-window rule on release; less aggressive sizing reduction. NFP rarely matters for individual swing positions but can matter for bond-sensitive names (REITs, utilities).

OPEX awareness — the dealer-flow distortion

Every third Friday, expiring options force dealer flow. Names with heavy options open interest experience pinning (price gravitating to high-OI strikes at expiry) and gamma reversals (post-expiry, dealer-hedging flow that propped a name up can flip). Quad-witching weeks (March/June/September/December) compound this with quarterly futures + index option expiry.

What the framework does: the Options Book surface flags upcoming OPEX dates and shows per-position gamma exposure for held positions. The Velocity Panel dampens new-entry sizing on heavily-optioned names during OPEX week. Existing positions don't get force-trimmed — but the trader is warned that the price action through OPEX is partly mechanical, not fundamentals-driven.

The rough heuristic: in OPEX week, a held position pinning to a round-number strike isn't an entry signal or an exit signal — it's mechanical pinning. Wait for the following Monday for the structural read to clarify.

Three-day weekends + macro overhang

Lesson 6's gap-distribution math doubles in weight before a three-day weekend with macro overhang. 64 hours of closed market becomes 88 hours; the news-flow surface area is 35% larger; the gap risk on Monday open is materially elevated.

The framework's rule: positions with R:R already degraded (under 2.5:1) get trimmed before three-day weekends. Positions at full R:R can hold through, but the Friday close ritual surfaces a "weekend gap budget" reading for the trader — the modeled portfolio shock if Monday opens 3% lower across the board. If the modeled shock is over 4-5% portfolio, trim aggressively before close.

⌬ Weekly calendar planner

Earnings on held names1 name

FOMC this week?No

CPI / PCE / NFP?None

OPEX week?No

3-day weekend?No

Calendar densityLight · 1 event

Recommended actionsEarnings playbook on 1 name

Sizing this weekStandard

One held position with earnings this week — apply the L19 playbook on that name. Otherwise standard sizing on new entries. Calendar is light; the trading week looks operationally clean.

Add FOMC + 1 earnings + OPEX + a 3-day weekend = "heavy week" with multiple sizing reductions stacking. The dashboard's Velocity Panel shows this density score live; this widget mirrors the logic.

The trim-into-catalyst rule

Stated explicitly: any position approaching a known catalyst window (earnings within 3 sessions, FOMC same day, three-day weekend with macro overhang, expiry-week pinning) gets evaluated for trim before the catalyst lands. The framework surfaces the trim recommendation; the trader executes during the Friday close or the session before the event. Not after.

Most retail traders trim after a catalyst — after the bad news, after the gap, after the volatility spike. The framework's rule reverses the timing: trim before, when the price still reflects the pre-catalyst structure. The trim isn't about predicting the catalyst's direction; it's about reducing the magnitude of the position relative to the gap risk.

What the framework does

Velocity Panel — surfaces the next 5 sessions' calendar density (earnings count, macro events, OPEX, holidays)
Per-position catalyst chip — earnings date with day-count and BMO/AMC timing on every held position
FOMC sizing dampener — 25% reduction on new entries the day before FOMC, 90-minute refusal window around release
OPEX gamma flag — heavily-optioned names get a flag during OPEX week with hover-tooltip explaining the dealer-flow distortion
Weekend gap budget — modeled portfolio shock for Monday open before three-day weekends, surfaced in the Friday close ritual

The real lesson

The week ahead is mostly knowable. Earnings are scheduled, FOMC is scheduled, OPEX is scheduled, holidays are scheduled. The framework surfaces all of them. The trader's job is to read the surfaced calendar Friday and adjust the next week's plan accordingly — not Monday morning when the events are already landing. Most operational mistakes happen because a known event was unaccounted for in the position sizing the trader was running. Pre-flight planning prevents most of those mistakes; the calendar is the pre-flight checklist.

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Capstone — weekly rhythm